Philippe Cahen helps executives and organisations detect weak signals, imagine several possible futures and make decisions under uncertainty.
His conviction: the future cannot be predicted. It can be prepared for.
Recognised futurist Philippe Cahen has developed an original method for thinking about the future without simply extending the past.
For more than twenty years, he has supported companies and institutions facing economic, technological and societal disruption. He looks for marginal, paradoxical or contradictory facts that may signal a major transformation, then builds several scenarios.
His method is based on four steps: detect weak signals, unlearn certainties, build scenarios and decide. An approach particularly suited to a world where trajectories are becoming increasingly non-linear.
Philippe Cahen also summarises his mindset in three words: Curious, look where others are not looking; Critical, challenge the obvious; Creative, turn signals into possible futures.
Since 2003, he has published La Lettre des Signaux Faibles every month. AI, retail, demographics, geopolitics, consumption, resources and climate: he observes changes in the present to identify the disruptions that may reshape tomorrow.
Tomorrow’s disruptions are already here. You just need to know where to look.
Philippe Cahen helps organisations detect what dominant trends still overlook, build multiple scenarios and turn uncertainty into a capacity for action.
See what others have not noticed yet.
Major disruptions often begin with facts that nobody considers important. Philippe Cahen shows how to identify these discreet clues that challenge dominant trends and may signal tomorrow's transformations.
Prepare your organisation for 2030, 2040 and 2050.
Climate, demographics, geopolitics, AI, resources and consumption: several major transformations are now unfolding at the same time. The challenge is no longer to predict one future, but to prepare for several.
When yesterday’s data meets tomorrow’s disruptions.
How can a machine trained on the past detect something that does not yet exist? Artificial intelligence excels at analysing known data. Yet genuine disruption may emerge precisely where data is missing.
Philippe Cahen brings algorithms, foresight, imagination and weak signals into dialogue.
Our certainties can sometimes be our greatest risk.
The first obstacle to anticipation is not a lack of information. It is our certainties. Markets, competitors, habits and dashboards naturally lead organisations to look at the future through the lens of the present.
Philippe Cahen invites audiences to move beyond these frames and identify what could genuinely change the rules of the game.
Consumers, AI and the end of certainty.
What if tomorrow your customer no longer made purchases personally? AI agents, TikTok Shop, Asian platforms, second-hand markets and new logistics models are rapidly changing the rules of retail.
Drawing on today's weak signals, Philippe Cahen explores several scenarios for the future of commerce.
Philippe Cahen speaks at the key moments where people, performance and impact matter.
Formats adaptable to your goals and context.
A unique experience serving strong, useful messages.
Weak signals, scenarios and decision-making: Philippe Cahen presents a practical approach to foresight that helps us look differently at the present and prepare for multiple possible futures.
08:09
Through concrete examples, Philippe Cahen shows how curiosity, critical thinking and creativity can help identify emerging transformations before they become obvious.
02:43
Philippe Cahen explains how weak signals and scenarios help test multiple hypotheses and turn uncertainty into a decision-making tool.
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Detect, unlearn, build scenarios: Philippe Cahen presents the key steps of his method for moving beyond linear projections and exploring multiple futures.
Our team helps you craft a tailored intervention, aligned with your goals and your audience.
The Chaos of Foresight and How to Get Out of It
2023
How can foresight be practised when uncertainty itself becomes permanent? Philippe Cahen argues for abandoning the illusion of a predictable future and developing a more open posture towards disruption.
Weak Signals. User's Guide
Eyrolles, 2010
A reference work on his method: how can discreet facts in current events reveal the transformations of tomorrow?
The Marketing of Uncertainty
2011
An agile foresight method enabling organisations to build scenarios and become actors rather than spectators of change.